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Why Official Covid Numbers Are Misleading


India’s Covid tally stands at 91,77,840. (File)

New Delhi:

There are two methods to fudge the precise variety of Covid instances. The first, extra apparent method is to cut back the variety of exams being carried out, as Donald Trump repeatedly urged. The second, much less apparent and extra insidious method is to extend the variety of Antigen exams and cut back the variety of PCR exams.

As everyone knows, Antigen exams don’t detect the Covid virus in addition to PCR exams. In reality, the separate knowledge, printed by only some states, on PCR vs Antigen take a look at outcomes, reveals that PCR exams have a positivity charge that’s 2.5 to three.5 instances increased than Antigen exams (for instance, in Delhi the positivity charge for PCR exams is 14% whereas the positivity charge for Antigen exams is 4%).

From 100% PCR exams on the very begin of the pandemic, India is now all the way down to lower than 60% PCR exams – whereas Antigen exams have risen sharply from a negligible quantity to now nearly 5.5 crores, which accounts for over 40% of whole exams. And, each week, there’s a steady rising pattern of Antigen testing.

1. SIGNS OF POOR TESTING

This desk clearly reveals the great, the dangerous and the ugly states. Bihar, Telangana, Gujarat, Delhi and UP are India’s 5 worst states with lower than 50% PCR exams. Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are wonderful with 100% PCR exams.

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2. UNDER-REPORTING OF COVID CASES

States with a excessive degree of Antigen testing are prone to miss numerous constructive instances. Once once more, Bihar – particularly throughout the run as much as elections – was the worst state in India in under-reporting Covid instances. The true variety of Covid instances in Bihar was an outrageous 132% of the formally reported instances. Telangana and Gujarat have additionally grossly under-reported the Covid pandemic of their states.

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3. MASSIVE NUMBER OF COVID CASES NOT REPORTED

But what do these percentages imply in precise numbers?

India has not reported 3.Four million Covid instances due to the deliberate enhance in the usage of the unreliable Antigen exams.

The official variety of Covid instances in any state relies upon after all on the inhabitants of every state, how badly Covid has unfold within the State, all tempered by the extent of Antigen testing in that state. 

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Maharashtra and Delhi have the very best precise numbers of lacking Covid instances – collectively lacking over 10 lakh Covid instances.

Once once more Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are the 2 most accountable and sincere reporting states, together with Punjab – precisely measuring and reporting on the variety of Covid instances of their states.

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4. STATES RANKED BY GENUINE TESTING LEVELS

The true rating of any state in how effectively it’s testing its inhabitants is the variety of PCR exams being carried out.

Tamil Nadu stands out far above the remainder of India – it’s the solely state to have carried out over 1 crore PCR exams, additionally reflecting the very best variety of exams per head of inhabitants with practically 1,400 exams per ten thousand of its residents. Karnataka is the second-best state with over 13,00 PCR exams per ten thousand residents.

Bihar, Telangana and Gujarat are the worst within the numbers of PCR exams per head of their inhabitants.

Overall, India will not be utilizing PCR exams sufficient – solely 550 of each 10,000 residents of India are being examined utilizing PCR.

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5. STATES UNDERESTIMATING THEIR TRUE POSITIVITY RATE

The official figures on India’s positivity charge are deceptive. The true positivity charge is far increased. Once once more, the PCR exams reveal the reality.

For the nation as an entire, the true positivity charge is sort of 140% of the formally declared charge (for instance, simply to be clear, the official positivity charge for all-India is 6.9%, whereas the true positivity charge is 9.6% i.e. 9.6% is 139% of 6.9%)

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